Post by account_disabled on Dec 27, 2023 10:34:40 GMT
Global Markets Group Bank of Ayudhya Public Company Limited has a view on the direction of the baht this week that There is a tendency to move in the 31.00-31.35 range. per dollar compared to the closing level of 31.16 per dollar last week. Foreign investors net sold 3.0 billion baht in the stock market but bought bonds 2.0 billion baht net, while Thai bond yields continued to reach a record low level. A brand new time Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened against most major currencies on the back of US economic data. reflects a bright direction and US bond yields moved slightly higher, however, the weakening of the yen, a safe haven, was limited amid concerns about the impact on the global economy of the COVID-19 outbreak. Krungsri's Global Markets Group views that the market will follow the COVID-19 virus situation, including the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.
In addition, the continued depreciation of the euro is in the interest of investors such as together After the euro reached its weakest level in two and a half years, Eurozone economic data indicated a continued weak trend. During this period, the baht returned to move mainly in line with the Yuan and the Euro. for domestic factors NESDB reports GDP numbers for the 4th quarter of 2019 grew only 1.6% from the same period Email Marketing List of the previous year. This is lower than the market expected and is the lowest growth rate in more than 5 years. NESDB lowered its estimate for the economic growth rate in 2020 to 1.5-2.5% from the original expectation of 2.7-3.7. % The Ministry of Tourism and Sports estimates that the impact of the new virus will cause the loss of 5 million foreign tourists in 2020 and a loss of 250 billion baht in income, while the Bank of Thailand (BoT) views that if Impacts up to this level will be considered as 1.5% of GDP When combined with the factors of drought and a delayed budget, this year's economy has a chance of growing below 2%. The first quarter of this year may expand less than 1%, which is likely to be the quarter with the lowest GDP growth of this year.
While this year's exports may be negative from the BoT's original expectation of a 0.5% recovery, with exports to China stumbling along the production chain. In addition, the BoT stated that important economic stimulus must be It comes from the budget. In addition, the BoT mentioned that the direction of the baht's value is depreciating relatively quickly due to the outbreak of the virus. But it is still not consistent with the economic fundamentals. And the weakening baht does not help the economy much. This attitude reflects that almost every driving force of the Thai economy has stalled, significantly eroding confidence. And the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may decide to reduce the policy interest rate further to 0.75% to signal that all sectors must cooperate.
In addition, the continued depreciation of the euro is in the interest of investors such as together After the euro reached its weakest level in two and a half years, Eurozone economic data indicated a continued weak trend. During this period, the baht returned to move mainly in line with the Yuan and the Euro. for domestic factors NESDB reports GDP numbers for the 4th quarter of 2019 grew only 1.6% from the same period Email Marketing List of the previous year. This is lower than the market expected and is the lowest growth rate in more than 5 years. NESDB lowered its estimate for the economic growth rate in 2020 to 1.5-2.5% from the original expectation of 2.7-3.7. % The Ministry of Tourism and Sports estimates that the impact of the new virus will cause the loss of 5 million foreign tourists in 2020 and a loss of 250 billion baht in income, while the Bank of Thailand (BoT) views that if Impacts up to this level will be considered as 1.5% of GDP When combined with the factors of drought and a delayed budget, this year's economy has a chance of growing below 2%. The first quarter of this year may expand less than 1%, which is likely to be the quarter with the lowest GDP growth of this year.
While this year's exports may be negative from the BoT's original expectation of a 0.5% recovery, with exports to China stumbling along the production chain. In addition, the BoT stated that important economic stimulus must be It comes from the budget. In addition, the BoT mentioned that the direction of the baht's value is depreciating relatively quickly due to the outbreak of the virus. But it is still not consistent with the economic fundamentals. And the weakening baht does not help the economy much. This attitude reflects that almost every driving force of the Thai economy has stalled, significantly eroding confidence. And the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may decide to reduce the policy interest rate further to 0.75% to signal that all sectors must cooperate.